Familiar foes do battle in Winnipeg

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09/08/2010 - Winnipeg, MB (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - For the second time in as many weeks the Saskatchewan Roughriders and the Winnipeg Blue Bombers find themselves pitted against each other on the gridiron, this time at Canad Inns Stadium on Sunday afternoon.

In Week 10 action, the Roughriders scored nine straight points to open the fourth quarter at home and that was enough to put the team over the top in a 27-23 final versus Winnipeg. The victory for Saskatchewan continued the trend of alternating wins and losses by the club over the last seven games.

The Roughriders scaled back their running game and instead focused on putting the ball in the air as Darian Durant converted 23-of-35 passes for 301 yards, yet he failed to put one in the end zone, was intercepted once and sacked three times. However, when Saskatchewan did opt to keep the ball on the ground the end results were nothing short of amazing as Durant gained 43 yards on six carries and scored once and Wes Cates added a pair of majors, even though he gained just 15 yards on seven attempts.

Over on the other side Fred Reid was limited to just 43 yards on 13 carries, but still he made his way over the goal line in the setback for the Blue Bombers. Buck Pierce was back under center for the club and hit on 21-of-29 passes for 243 yards, but like Durant he could not get one of his passes into the end zone. Steven Jyles, who was brought in to sub for Pierce, completed all four of his passes for 43 yards and a score in the losing effort.

Keeping Winnipeg signal-callers on their toes was James Patrick who notched yet another interception for the Roughriders, returning it 44 yards on the first play of the second quarter to later set up the first major of the game. Patrick now has a total of seven interceptions on the season, easily the top number by any defender in the league entering play this week. Unfortunately, the defender isn't getting much support in that area from the rest of his teammates because through 10 games Saskatchewan has a total of only 11 picks and is currently breaking even in the turnover department as a result.

As frustrating as it might be for Patrick to see his team with a turnover differential of zero at the moment, it is still better than Winnipeg which is a minus six due to the fact that the Bombers have only 17 takeaways thus far. The biggest issue for Winnipeg has been maintaining possession of the ball because at the moment it is tied with Toronto for the most lost fumbles with 11.

Jyles and Pierce, the primary gunslingers for the Blue Bombers, have done all they can to try and keep the team competitive thus far with their combined 14 TD passes and just six interceptions. The team as a whole is completing 63.5 percent of its pass attempts and putting that altogether gives the unit an efficiency rating of 99.6, which is currently third in the conference. No matter which signal-caller is under center for the club, the main option down the field remains Terrence Edwards who is second in the league in receiving yardage with 778, averaging almost 18 yards per catch while reeling in seven TDs for the squad.

Durant has been slinging the ball all over the field every chance he gets for the Roughriders, which is why he leads the league in passing yards with 2,775 after nine games. However, Durant has also had more than his share of mistakes and is currently tied with Calgary's Henry Burris for the most interceptions with 13. In defense of Burris, he has tossed his picks while also converting a league-leading 21 majors, compared to just 11 TDs for Durant.

In his last three appearances against Winnipeg, Durant has averaged almost 260 ypg through the air, has thrown for a pair of touchdowns and also logged two majors as a runner in order to keep the Roughriders more than competitive in the series. Helping to balance out the offensive attack, Cates has been destroying the Bombers defense in the last four meetings with a total of eight touchdowns on the ground and another through the air, even though his overall yardage hasn't been all that spectacular.

With respect to the all-time, regular-season series between the clubs, Winnipeg is ahead by a count of 112-83-3 dating back to 1945. Thanks to the victory last week the Roughriders have now taken five in a row and six of the last seven meetings with Winnipeg.

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Michael Vick is back, Brett Favre isn't and the NFC East remains the best division in the NFC, maybe in all of football.

As players start to gather for the start of another season, some things change and some stay the same in the world of the NFL.

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The NFC East has been the dominant division in the National Conference for a while, despite limited playoff success, save for the New York Giants surprise Super Bowl win two seasons ago.

Hell, there's a generation of kids in Texas who have never seen the Cowboys win a playoff game (last win was in 1996).

But collectively, the Giants, Eagles, Cowboys and Redskins (well, maybe not so much the Redskins) are as good as a division gets in an NFC conference that has struggled to stay competitive with the AFC side.

Sports bettors have both acknowledged the NFC East's dominance, as one glance at the NFL future odds menu will show.

Looking over the NFL betting odds at online sports book MySportsbook.com we see the top three teams listed to win the NFC Championship are all from the NFC East:

Dallas Cowboys - 7 - 1

Philadelphia Eagles - 13 - 2

New York Giants - 9 - 2

Slotting in behind these three are two teams from the NFC North: the Minnesota Vikings (15-2) and the Chicago Bears (10-1).

Again, despite the lack of recent playoff success, the Dallas Cowboys are popular with the sports betting community, as they hold 14% of all the money wagered on who will win the NFC Championship.

So far, the New York Giants are the bettors' favorite to represent their conference in the Super Bowl, as they have 24% of the overall NFC Championship betting volume.

And what about the Philadelphia Eagles? For the most part, the Eagles had a very productive offseason, the kind that could bring them back to the top.

They had a good draft adding the likes of WR Jeremy Maclin and RB LeSean McCoy.

Unfortunately, the team received a blow when long-time defensive coordinator Jim Johnson passed away on Tuesday.

But this team will make a real run at the division title this year. Going into the regular season, Philly is listed at +240 to win the division.

Last season the Eagles were 9-6-1 SU and 10-6 ATS.

Teams from the NFC East will play teams from the AFC West in the regular season and the Eagles haven't really been a good bet in the last 20 games against the likes of San Diego, Oakland, K.C. and Denver, only going 8-12 ATS.

Two seasons removed from that Super Bowl title, the New York Giants see themselves listed as the odds-on favorite in NFC East championship futures at +162.

Plaxico Burress is gone and with him all the bad publicity surrounding the gun in the sweatpants incident, but can they replace him in the offense?

Last season the Giants were a very reliable bet going 12-4 ATS.

In the Giants' last 20 games against fellow teams from the NFC East; they are 13-7 ATS.

Dallas is listed at +240 to win the division.

Dallas went 9-7 SU and 7-9 ATS last season and with the amount of talent the Cowboys have, a similar performance won't do.

The Cowboys have been atrocious against divisional rivals, going 6-14 ATS in their last 20.

The Washington Redskins are longshots to win the division at +550.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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