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08/30/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - With training camps opening Sept. 12, there is no better time than the present to begin asking the single-most important question for each of the 30 NHL teams.
The first of six installments begins in the Western Conference, with the Central Division. Let's jump right into the fray with quite possibly the number one question of the entire league: Can Marty Turco effectively replace Antti Niemi and lead the Blackhawks back to the Stanley Cup Finals?
Turco comes to Chicago on the cheap after spending nine seasons in Dallas. The Ontario native has seen his skills decline in recent years to the point where he is not even considered one of the elite goaltenders in the league. In fact, one could argue the change in style of play since the lockout has highlighted his gargantuan failures.
Prior to 2005, Turco's career goals-against average stood at 1.91. Since then, it is more than one half-goal higher at 2.53. In addition, his overall save percentage has dropped dramatically since the lockout, from .922 down to .905.
It is true the defense in front of him this season will be a thousand times better than the one that skated in Dallas, but that fact was lost on Cristobal Huet, who came into Chicago with a career .918 save percentage and couldn't hold down the number-one spot in either of his two seasons as a Hawk.
It is also interesting to note that Kari Lehtonen recorded a 2.81 GAA and a .911 save percentage for Dallas after playing in only four minor league games the entire year. Meanwhile, Turco's 2.72 and .913 numbers were extremely similar even though he was healthy for most of the season, save for missing three games with the flu.
The Blackhawks, forced to cut ties with Niemi due to salary cap restrictions, could find themselves in a similar situation as last year if Turco struggles, so do not be shocked if backup Corey Crawford winds up leading the reigning champions back into the playoffs.
CAN JIMMY HOWARD DUPLICATE HIS 2009-10 CAMPAIGN?
Detroit is poised to bring the Stanley Cup back to Hockeytown after a two-year drought. All the pieces are in place offensively as well as defensively. However, one area must remain strong, and that's between the pipes.
Jimmy Howard was spectacular during the regular season, allowing four goals or more just 11 times in 63 games. Unfortunately, the 26-year-old could not find his groove in the playoffs, giving up four or more six times in only 12 starts.
With Chris Osgood as his backup, Howard will once again get the bulk of the starts to prove his first full season (37 wins, 2.26 GAA, .924 save percentage) was not a fluke. His development will decide Detroit's fate once the postseason begins.
WILL NASHVILLE IMPROVE ENOUGH DEFENSIVELY?
Dan Hamhuis was a major contributor to the Predators defense for six solid seasons. The defenseman will now ply his trade with the Vancouver Canucks after signing a six-year deal this past July 1.
Nashville relied heavily on its top four defensemen more so than any other team in the league, as all four ranked in the top 50 players in terms of even- strength minutes. The loss of Hamhuis could have a ripple effect on the rest of the unit, particularly since only Ryan Parent was brought in as a replacement.
Furthermore, restricted free agent Cody Franson remains unsigned. If the second-year defenseman and the team fail to reach an agreement on a new deal, it could be a long season for the Predators.
CAN THE BLUES REJUVENATE THEIR OFFENSE?
Contrary to popular opinion, the Blues' season will not revolve around newcomer Jaroslav Halak. The goaltender that lifted the Canadiens to the Eastern Conference Finals should have little problems adapting to the new conference considering he holds a 12-4 lifetime record against the West.
The main question concerning St. Louis comes from an offense that struggled to find the back of the net. Only four Western Conference teams scored fewer goals than the Blues and all four failed to make the postseason.
Not only did the forwards combine for just 192 goals, but nine of the top 12 produced a lower goals-per-game mark than the year before. Moreover, Brad Boyes and David Backes could not even reach half of their 67 goal total from 2008-09, picking up only 31 goals a season ago.
One problem is the lack of a true puck-carrying defenseman outside of Erik Johnson. If Alex Pietrangelo is ready for full-time duty with the big club, his passing skills will help open up the ice for the young forwards in their quest for more offense.
WILL COLUMBUS IMPROVE ON THE ROAD?
Only one team won fewer road games than the Blue Jackets last season and that was the Edmonton Oilers, who wound up with the worst record in the entire league. Columbus finished the year 12-23-6 away from home, with an abysmal 6-19-5 mark over its final 30 games. The Jackets scored four goals or more just four times over that span after reaching the total six times in their first 11.
Two seasons ago, Columbus reached the playoffs for the first time in team history partly due to its 16-18-7 road mark - the club's finest winning percentage away from home. If the Blue Jackets cannot improve their play on the road, expect another season without a trip to the playoffs.
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"There has never been a better time for the Aren
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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