Rapids not taking Chivas for granted

Soccer Betting Lines

09/03/2010 - Commerce City, CO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Colorado Rapids will continue their playoff push on Saturday when they host Western Conference cellar-dwellars, Chivas USA at Dick's Sporting Goods Park.

Colorado enters the weekend in fifth place in the Western Conference table, but they are seventh overall in Major League Soccer, which would be good enough to help the team qualify for the playoffs.

The Rapids have won only two of their last 11 games, but they are hoping that they can record a second successive win on Saturday after beating the Houston Dynamo, 3-0.

With regular starting goalkeeper Matt Pickens out because of back spasms, Ian Joyce made his first career MLS start and kept a clean sheet, and he felt that it was the mental approach of the team that was a big reason for the good result.

"I think the hard work and the determination shown by the team tonight came through in the end," Joyce told mlssoccer.com. "From start to finish, we really had the right attitude going into this game. We are in a playoff push now and we really approached this game with the right mentality and we came through in the end."

Colorado will hope to carry some of the momentum from the Houston game into Saturday's match, but Rapids midfielder Pablo Mastroeni knows that just because Chivas sits on the bottom of the table, they cannot be taken lightly.

"Any team, regardless of your standing in the table, can beat any team on any given day," Mastroeni told MLSsoccer.com. "What we have come away with from this season is to have utmost respect for every team that we play and find a way to impose ourselves on the opposing team early in the game."

Chivas was able to record its sixth win of the season in league play as they beat Eastern Conference bottom-feeders D.C. United, 1-0, last time out.

However, the Goats suffered a setback in midweek as they fell 3-1 to Seattle Sounders FC in the semifinals of the U.S. Open Cup.

Chivas striker Justin Braun called the semifinal match the biggest game in club history prior to kickoff, so Braun and the rest of his teammates must now pull themselves back together and try for a second successive win.

The visitors will be without Osael Romero (El Salvador), Bryan de la Fuente and Cesar Zamora (both US Under-20 National Team) because of international duty, while Colorado is waiting to see how the back of Pickens responds while also keeping an eye on a hamstring problem that could keep defender Marvell Wynne out.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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